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Post 1: Probability

In the first 2 weeks of MAT257 Probability has been a heavy emphasis. One activity we utilized to analyze elements of probability is playing repeated trials of rock paper scissors. The game was supposed to lend itself to the concept that the game should be fair because with any given hand you play(rock, paper, scissors) you have an equal chance to lose, win or tie. I noticed different intricacies, such as some players may have a tendency to over use a certain hand and thus misconstrue the expected results quite significantly. But what should eventually be noticed is that repeated trials will get you closer and closer to that theoretical probability of winning 1/3 of the time, losing 1/3 the tie, and tying 1/3 the time. I think it is important to see that a small sample of rock-paper-scissor games may be off the theoretical probability, but adding more and more trials gets you inching closer and closer to the expected outcome. Bernoulli's theorem on statistics is exactly that repeated trials of a probability activity will land you closer and closer to what you expect.

I've enjoyed many other elements of our initial introduction to probability. For instance I really find the deck of cards  helpful tool. You will encounter denominator like 13, 26, and 52 when utilizing the deck of cards. Those aren't uncommon numbers many students encounter in fractions, so that exposure is healthy. I also like how different trains of thought are needed to analyze rolling two die instead of just one. I also very much liked learning some new elements on the TI-73 calculators. The Probability Simulator under APPs on the calculator is differently something I would want to implement into my on classes in the future. I really feel like it is in a students best interest when using a calculator to have thorough instructions from a teacher, followed by the leeway to play with what ever you are learning. I feel this application really gives you that forum. Learning odds was also very insightful. I had previous exposure to odds (e.g. 1:32, 32:1) in the context of horse racing or sports betting. I never knew were this numbers were derived from. Classroom activities also gave me understanding for how this interrelates with probability.

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